The Espresso Index

Contested question

Technology or politics: what drove rising inequality?

Labor economists and political scientists have built two well-evidenced but different accounts of why inequality rose in rich countries after the 1970s. This is the field's central unresolved argument.

The disagreement

Why did wage and income inequality climb in the United States (and, less sharply, other rich countries) from the late 1970s on? Two research traditions give different primary answers.

Viewpoint A — skills, education, and technology

The mainstream labor-economics account treats inequality mostly as a supply-and-demand story. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy (1992) modeled the college/non-college wage gap as the outcome of technology steadily raising demand for skilled workers while the supply of educated workers grew unevenly. David H. Autor et al. (2008) defended and refined that framework while documenting "polarization" — growth at the top and bottom with a hollowing middle — that a one-dimensional skill model does not fully capture. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz (2008) extended the story across a century: inequality fell while U.S. education expanded fast enough to outrun technology, and rose again after 1980 when that expansion stalled. David H. Autor (2014) argues that for the bottom 99 percent, the education wage premium explains far more than anything happening among the ultra-rich.

Strongest evidence: the education wage premium tracks relative supply over decades, across cohorts and countries.

Viewpoint B — policy choices and organized power

Political scientists argue markets did not act alone. Jacob S. Hacker & Paul Pierson (2010) and the companion book attribute the post-1970s rise to decades of deliberate policy — deregulation, tax changes, weakened labor-law enforcement, financialization — driven by an increasingly organized business lobby against a comparatively unorganized public. Larry M. Bartels (2008) shows income growth for the bottom 80 percent has been systematically faster under one party's presidents since the 1940s, evidence that partisan policy differences move distributional outcomes. Martin Gilens & Benjamin I. Page (2014) finds economic elites' preferences predict policy outcomes where average citizens' do not — one answer to why the self-correction predicted by Allan H. Meltzer & Scott F. Richard (1981) never arrived.

Strongest evidence: countries facing the same technology and trade shocks diverged sharply in inequality depending on their institutions.

Where the field stands

Both literatures rest on real evidence, and they are not mutually exclusive: a common reading is that technology set the stage while policy (tax rates, union law, minimum wages, financial regulation) determined how much of that pressure reached take-home pay. Their relative weight is genuinely disputed, and it matters because the two accounts imply different remedies. This site does not adjudicate that; anyone who tells you it is cleanly one or the other is oversimplifying.

Further reading

The explainers on measurement and the Kuznets curve; the wage inequality and political science theme pages.