The Espresso Index

Paper · 2017 · intro level

The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940

Raj Chetty, David Grusky, Maximilian Hell, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert Manduca, Jimmy Narang

Venue
Science, 356(6336), 398–406
DOI
10.1126/science.aal4617
Link
publisher / source page

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In plain language

Absolute mobility — the share of children who out-earn their parents — fell from about 90% for kids born in 1940 to about 50% for kids born in the 1980s; more unequal distribution of growth explains more of this than slower growth itself.

Technical summary

Decomposes trends in absolute income mobility into GDP growth rate versus distributional share effects; simulations show more broadly shared growth, holding growth rates fixed, could restore most of the lost mobility.

Key takeaways

  • Directly separates 'grow the pie' from 'share the pie' as policy levers, finding the distribution of growth matters more than its rate.

Themes

Opportunity & Mobility

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