Paper · 2017 · intro level
The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940
Raj Chetty, David Grusky, Maximilian Hell, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert Manduca, Jimmy Narang
- Venue
- Science, 356(6336), 398–406
- DOI
- 10.1126/science.aal4617
- Link
- publisher / source page
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In plain language
Absolute mobility — the share of children who out-earn their parents — fell from about 90% for kids born in 1940 to about 50% for kids born in the 1980s; more unequal distribution of growth explains more of this than slower growth itself.
Technical summary
Decomposes trends in absolute income mobility into GDP growth rate versus distributional share effects; simulations show more broadly shared growth, holding growth rates fixed, could restore most of the lost mobility.
Key takeaways
- Directly separates 'grow the pie' from 'share the pie' as policy levers, finding the distribution of growth matters more than its rate.
Themes
Related works
- Where Is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States — Raj Chetty et al., 2014